TallyglassWrite the finish line.
Choose one observable metric, one counting rule and one cutoff. A prediction starts with a question that can be answered.
COMMUNITY METRICS / PREDICTION LAB
Put belief
on the record.
Will the next milestone happen?
Turn creator and collection signals into precise questions. Forecast. Resolve. See what you learned.
Local simulation · No wallet or funds required
TALLYGLASS / INSTRUMENT 01 SIMULATION
QUESTION / 001Can a collection cross 1,000 collectors?RULE: ≥ 1,000 UNIQUE HOLDERS
BUILT FOR VERIFIABLE QUESTIONS
Explicit thresholds
Frozen forecast receipts
Inspectable resolution
01 — 0301 / THE PREDICTION LAB
A conviction.
A clear condition.
Practice on illustrative datasets.
Change the rule, commit your forecast,
then resolve against the evidence.
COLLECTION / ROUND 001LOCAL DEMO
Will unique collectors reach 1,000?
BASELINE840
SAMPLE AT CUTOFFSealed
COUNTING RULEUnique holders
Evidence: sample unique-holder snapshot · One address counts once. Exchanges excluded.
62%
UnlikelyVery likely
Set a threshold and probability to begin.
YOUR FROZEN RECEIPT
02 / THE METHOD
Less noise.
More definition.
Leave a receipt.
Commit your probability before you reveal the sample result. Your rule and belief stay together in a frozen record.
Let evidence speak.
Compare the observation with your threshold. Review the Brier score: a smaller error means a better calibrated forecast.
03 / PROTOCOL DIRECTION
A lab today.
A shared ledger next.
A planned Tallyglass token would support question curation and evidence-review participation. Live data adapters, dispute review and contract settlement require further implementation. No token has been issued through this demo.
Download the brand kit ↗